The NBA this season has been as enthralling and enjoyable as it has in a long time. The transformation began when LeBron and his class entered the league and matters have continued to improve in the ensuing years. Anyway, let’s cut the touchy-feel crap and count down the teams that are most likely to come out of the West in the playoffs. All of these teams are quality but some of them have key playoff-time elements like crunch-time defense, at least two crunch-time scorers and a deep bench.
The Contenders
1. Spurs
I would count the Spurs out because they’re so old but all of a sudden Manu Ginobli transformed from an all-star to an elite player. Notice that he’s the guy the Spurs go to now at the end of games. Tony Parker always elevates his ability during playoffs and their bench is full of experience. I think the Spurs will be even more dangerous because of the whole can’t-repeat criticism (which is absurd, four titles in nine years is pretty damn good) and the fact that this might be their last chance because of their age.
2. Lakers
Although unproven in the playoffs, Gasol gives them the second option when Kobe gets quadruple-teamed. I have a feeling Bynum won’t be back to normal but even without him the Lakers have a bench that could get fourth or fifth in the East on its own. Alot of their players have blossomed this year. Lakers fans won’t complain if Farmar, Vujacic or Fisher play the point and Ariza or Walton the three at the end of games because they’ve all shown big-time prowess this year. This is a team that will be dangerous this year and for the next few seasons.
3. Jazz
The Jazz have several things going for them: conference finals experience from last year, a true point guard who can score (Deron Williams), a true go-to big guy (Boozer), a third guy who can make things happen (Kirilenko), a formidable home court advantage and a deep cast of support players who don’t complain and just play. They’ve been flying a little under the radar in the West but they’re much better equipped to go all the way than the following teams.
Puncher’s Chance
4. Hornets
Unfortunately, the Hornets don’t get much national television coverage which means few people get to see Chris Paul (although we see the Heat every week). He’s the only reason the Hornets have a chance but I don’t see them going too far. Their other guys are David West, Tyson Chandler and Peja. All quality players but would you trust one of them when the game’s on the line and Chris Paul is quadruple-teamed?
5. Phoenix Suns
Look, the Suns weren’t going to win a title with Marion so they had to shake things up. I think they’ll continue to get better with Shaq but the identity crisis might last too long for them to get through the West. They’ve been owned by the West elite this year and even with the experience and wisdom Shaq (and Grant Hill) bring, can you see them get past the Spurs or Lakers? No way. Poor Steve Nash. By the way, Bill Simmons made a great point on how good Phoenix could have been if their owner wasn’t a miser.
6. Dallas Mavericks
It’s weird that professional sportsmen can have fragile psyches but there’s no way the Mavs are ever recovering from two horrific playoff experiences. I’m not convinced Jason Kidd makes them better. Who do they go to when Dirk gets shutdown? Josh Howard hasn’t gotten much better this year. I kept thinking he’d become a superstar at some point but I’m not so convinced anymore. Really, for a playoff team, would you rather have a Josh Howard or a Tayshaun Prince? This Mavs team is over.
Maybe the other guy will get hit by a car Chance
7. Warriors
The Warriors are actually better this year than last but because everyone else is better too they’ll have a tough time in the playoffs. They’ve overtaken the Suns as the most fun team in the league and they do have two crunch-time go-to guys (Baron Davis and Monta Ellis). But they don’t have crunch-time defense and they’re not blowing teams out like they were doing to the Mavs last time around. Meanwhile, Stephen Jackson has to be on the list of non-star all-star playoff performers (Horry, Prince, etc). Remember him on the Spurs a few years ago? They wouldn’t have won a ring without him.
8. Nuggets
This team proves that George Karl can’t coach. If you look at the roster, a good coach could give this team a chance to win a title. Two explosive scorers (AI, Carmelo), two better-than-average big men (Camby, K-Mart) and good off-the-bench energy guys (Kleiza, Najera). They’re kind of like the Sonics team that went to the Conference Finals a couple years ago but better. The huge weakness is defense, which is a coaching problem because a lot of these guys are actually pretty good individual defenders. They’re not turning it around all of a sudden. They need a coaching change for next season.
9. Rockets
The hottest team in the NBA right now but the least likely to get out of the West. Without Yao it’s another one-and-done year for McGrady. I kind of feel sorry for him because he’s playing so well but there’s no way this supporting cast is getting it done. I suppose they should be ranked ahead of the Nuggets because it looks like Denver won’t even make it in but I still think the Mile High Club would have a better chance if both teams were in the playoffs.
Now for the East. I’ll just list the teams. I don’t feel like wasting time on inferiority. 1. Pistons, 2. Celtics, 3. Magic, 4. Cavs.
I wonder why there’s so much disparity between the NBA conferences. Do players just hate going east after free agency?
My best guess is better GMs and ownership… When a franchise is run properly – win in the present while building for the future – then better players will be drawn to it. When you think of the biggest markets in the East – New York, Boston, Chicago, Philly, DC and Miami – all of them have made huge mistakes in management. Bad talent assessment, bad trades, bad deals, bad hirings. The thing is even with mistakes made, a good GM can create a great team – Dumars in Detroit (taking Darko but still being a title contender every year) for example.
I wonder if the West has lucked out a bit with drafts – Yao, Oden/Durant, two East teams passing on Deron Williams AND Chris Paul, a bunch of teams passing on Brandon Roy – but then I remember that it’s more than just the top guys and anyway the East has three of the top draft picks in the past five years – LeBron, Dwight Howard, and Dwayne Wade. We’ll see if these young ‘uns can’t get the East more competitive than two-three teams a year.