Euro 2008 Preview (Part 2)

There are six teams that are gambling favorites to win the tournament: Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands. But the beauty of the European Championships lies in the depth of the quality. Plenty of teams can shock and make life difficult for the so-called big boys. Another reason that I love the Euro tournaments is that rivalries – of both footballing and non-footballing origin – are more abundant than at a World Cup. In Group C, for example, France and Italy meet again after an explosive WC final and meeting twice in qualifying. Italy were triumphant in penalties in the World Cup to gain revenge for their Golden Goal reversal to the French in Euro 2000. Will either of them lift the trophy? The only thing we know for sure is that they won’t meet in the final match and that Zidane won’t be head-butting anyone.

GROUP C

World champions Italy headline the summer’s Group of Death as they attempt to win their third European Championship. They qualified from the same group as France but were pushed hard by Scotland. Still, their form as of late has been impressive, they have almost no weaknesses and I think the lack of Francesco Totti – a serial under-performer in his nation’s colors – will be a boon. Last time out they couldn’t make it out of the group stages (as Italians always do when they lose, they cried conspiracy). There’s no reason to believe history will repeat itself but I’ll make my shock prediction and say they finish third in the group.

Weaknesses: I may be clutching at straws here because the Italians seem to have no weaknesses. Still, I’m not excited about their midfield. Pirlo, from what I’ve heard, has been sub-par this year and the rest of their guys are more workman-like than creative.

Players to watch: If Italy make it out of the group stage, Luca Toni should win the Golden Boot for the tournament. He’s been in amazing form this year and scores at all the right moments. I’m interested to see if Alberto Aquilani gets some minutes in midfield and provides any creative spark.

While their run to the World Cup final, led by a resurgent Zinedine Zidane, surprised many, France enters this tournament as one of the firm favorites. The squad is packed with speed and skill, combining youthful exuberance with tried-and-true experience. Despite some dodgy selection decisions by manager Raymond Domenech, les Bleus have the talent to navigate this tough group with relative ease.

Weaknesses: If I were a French supporter, I would be worried about the center of defense with psychologically frail William Gallas, ancient wise man Lilian Thuram and bumbling Boumsong to choose from. I also hear Willy Sagnol is hurt on the right-side which shows how stupid it was to exclude Bacary Sagna.

Players to watch: Franck Ribery is the most exciting player in this tournament. The team revolves around his influence and he’s had a spectacular season so things are looking up for the French. I’m hoping Arsenal target Samir Nasri, supposed to be exciting in his own right, gets some kicks instead of the ho-hum Florent Malouda. Also, striker Karim Benzema has the chance to confirm he’s the real deal on the big stage.

The Netherlands have often been the favorites of the neutral fan but team discord has usually been their undoing. Now managed by the legendary Marco van Basten, the Oranje are solid and united but entertainment is as dead as the dinosaurs. The Dutch have qualified easily for the past two tournaments put disappointing results have done little to justify the stultifying style they have adopted. They have a difficult enough time getting results against minnows so I feel their match-ups in this group will be too much to overcome.

Weaknesses: Would you believe it’s in the attacking third? The Dutch have struggled to score all throughout qualifying. Babel is out with injury, van Persie can’t go the full 90, Robben is frail and odds are he’ll get injured (though I hope not) and only one of van Nistelrooy and Huntelaar can play at a time. That’s not a good.

Players to watch: Arjen Robben is a one-dimensional player but that one dimension is thrilling to watch. Robin van Persie is another exciting player – only if he’s fit of course. I’ve been hearing a lot about Ibrahim Afellay for a while. We’ll see if he gets a chance with all the question marks surrounding the attack.

Because the first three teams are such favorites, Romania must feel a little left out of the party. But this is a talented team that cruised through qualifying with a superior record against the Netherlands. They don’t quite match up to the great team of the 90s led by Hagi and gang, but I think they’re good enough to spring some surprises. Here’s my second shock prediction: they make it out of this group.

Weaknesses: My prediction is odd because I really don’t know much about the team beyond their results. I’ve read reports that the manager and players are worried about some poor form and that’s not a good sign ahead of such a tough group.

Players to watch: Adrian Mutu can flat-out score no matter where he plays. Kicked off Chelsea back in the day after testing positive for cocaine, Mutu has gained steam in the past couple of seasons and is coming off his best goals total of his career. Mutu’s striking partner Ciprian Marica is another guy to watch.

GROUP D

On paper, Spain has the most complete team in the tournament. They combine skill, speed and goalscoring prowess in attack with a steely defense and one of the finest goalkeepers in the world. Of course, the Spanish always have a strong team in paper but, well, they also always fail and fail early. Can they break the duck this time? With such a talented team, led by a terrific midfield, they’ll at least get out of their group.

Weaknesses: With such a tortured history in international tournaments, the Spanish have a frail psychology. It’s sort of strange talking about professional footballers’ collective psyche but it’s an issue that can’t be avoided. Their form in warm-up matches has been underwhelming as well, bringing up another problem: their inability to turn dominance of possession into goals.

Players to watch: The English press is all agog over Liverpool’s Fernando Torres but the truth is that David Villa is the superior and more exciting striker. Add the fact that he takes the free kicks and penalties for his team and it’s odd that Torres is the oddmakers’ favorite for golden boot. Cesc Fabregas – still only 21 – is a pleasure to watch and Andres Iniesta – though if he plays will be in an unnatural position on the wing – plays the beautiful game the right way.

During qualifying, Russia were in pole position to qualify but a lame effort in Israel saw them back their way into the competition courtesy of Croatia defeating England in London. Dutch manager Guus Hiddink is a master of the international tournament but the Russians have drawn a group that’s tougher than it looks. Russian football is on a high after Zenit St. Petersburg won the UEFA Cup – the second Russian triumph in that tournament in four years. Russia will challenge to reach the knockout rounds but I don’t see them making it.

Weaknesses: I don’t know much about the Russians beyond what I’ve read but their inability to succeed in Israel (although Israel is a tough opponent) shows they lack a killer instinct. Also, they may be missing their two best players, which won’t help matters.

Players to watch: If they actually get to play a meaningful match, Zenit duo Andrei Arshavin and Pavel Pogrebnyak will be attracting plenty of attention. The former, a slick play-maker, is suspended for two matches and the latter, a goalscoring dynamo, picked up an injury in the lead-ups.

Sweden is a mainstay in international tournaments but are almost certainly a lock to go out at the first knock-out round at the latest. I’m not expecting anything different this year. This particular squad depends too much on the old guard to do much damage in the tournament. Convincing the spectacular but incredibly old Henrik Larsson to reconsider international retirement for the fifteenth time does nothing but underline the lack of quality in the squad. I foresee an early exit for the Swedes.

Weaknesses: Besides age, lack of form for important players must concern Swedish fans. The attacking third may be a source of frustration. All the choices to pair Zlatan Ibrahimovic are solid at best while wingers Ljunberg and Wilhemsson have endured sub-par seasons.

Players to watch: I feel Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a little over-rated (not to mention he doesn’t perform too well for his country) but there are few players more entertaining to watch. He has great ball skills, a penchant for scoring spectacular goals, and throws some of the best tantrums in Europe. I’m not sure anyone else on their squad is worth watching although Henrik Larsson, if he gets the chance, always brings an extra element to the game.

By shocking Europe and the world, defending champions Greece have catapulted themselves into the football conscious. Failing to qualify for WC 2006, however, did nothing to disprove the theory that their triumph was nothing more than a cosmic fluke. However, underestimating this team would not be a good idea for opposing teams. After losing 4-1 at home to Turkey, they turned things around and stormed to the top in their qualifying group with plenty of points to spare. They are a solid, blue-collar team that no one wants to play. They’ll make it to the knock-out round.

Weaknesses: Instead of injecting youth and unpredictability, the Greeks are relying on the old guys who won Euro 2004. This team doesn’t have anyone who scares defenses. Also, if they have the same goalkeeper I think they have, it’s time to start sacrificing to Zeus to bless the usually solid defense.

Who to watch: I’ve read a little bit about left wing-back Vasilis Torosidis being an interesting package. Unfortunately for the Greeks, it’s not good when one of your most exciting offensive prospects is a fullback. I also remember watching a young Greek striker who had plenty of potential but he seems to be missing from this squad. In his absence, I’ll peg Ioannis Amantidis as a player to watch. Sort of.

Well, that just about does it for the preview. If you have trouble keeping score, I’ve picked Portugal, Turkey, Germany, Croatia, France, Romania, Spain and Greece to make the quarterfinals. I’ll go ahead and make two sets of predictions for the rest of the tournament. The first is from the heart:

Turkey over Germany; Portugal over Croatia; France over Greece; Romania over Spain; Turkey over Portugal; France over Romania; Turkey over France.

But here’s what will really happen:

Germany over Turkey; Portugal over Croatia; France over Greece; Spain over Romania; Germany over Portugal; Spain over France; Germany over Spain.